Daily Blog • November 20th


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS 69-52 (57%) This Year

HOUSTON AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOU 91
230
16
1.7
#23
NYJ 160
293
33
0.8
#7

QB Schaub got a lot of attention by going to the hospital with a knee injury TW missing 1.5 practices. The starting C Myers tweaked his shoulder Thurs and his status is unknown. The Jets off two str OT wins on the road (1st time in NFL historu) but didn’t waste a lot of exertion on defense as you might think. QB Sanchez is expected to be fine and the Jets have no serious injuries of note. HOU defense is giving up 410 ypg on the road, which would rank #31 and are #28 with 28 ppg allowed on the road. Look for the Jets physical defense to make Schaub uncomfortable for a dominating win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 31 HOUSTON 21

 

WASHINGTON AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAS 85
243
21
1.9
#8
TEN 140
245
27
2.3
#13

TEN HC Fisher is in the rare position of being off 2 str losses and 5 of his next 6 gms are vs div rivals. This is only his 3rd meeting vs Shanahan (0-2) and the only injury concern for the starters is DT Brown. Young will get the start at QB vs an beat-up WAS defense with both starting CB’s Hall and Rodgers being slowed with hamstring injuries. The Redskins’ “Bend-But-Don’t Break” defense was shattered by a mobile QB, and a deep-threat last week. It was so bad that At 2:00 the next day owner Dan Snyder was still in his pajamas being distraught over what happened. Look for better production from Moss in this game and RB Johnson should establish himself on the ground.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 WASH 17

 

GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GB 90
228
25
1.5
#27
MIN 118
245
17
2.7
#18

The Vikings playoff hopes are hanging by a thread and this is their last stand. They are evenly matched statistically with the #14 and #2 units at home vs GB’s #6 and #11 units on the road. The key here is if MIN can protect the ball as they are last in the NFL with -11 TO’s. GB comes back off a bye with only WR Driver (quad) being the major question mark. GB is +6 TO’s and lead the NFL with 80 pts off TO’s. Expect RB Peterson to be the focal pt for the Vikings as they keep hope alive for another week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 31 GREEN BAY 27

 

CLEVELAND AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLE 128
220
28
2.0
#4
JAX 131
248
20
2.3
#10

CLE dominated JAX in LY’s season finale 23-17 in the cold. They now have a better run game behind RB Hillis who is #12 in rushing in he NFL with an impressive 4.8 ypc. Rookie QB McCoy has exceeded expectations vs 4 playoff tms and now gets a very porous Jaguars secondary. CLE pass defense isn’t much better however and Garrard in his L/2 gms has thrown for 602 yds (79%) with a 6-0 ratio and an astounding 11.6 ypa. This is still a pair of run-oriented teams and despite the injuries concern on the CLE defense, the matchups favor the Browns and the CLE coaching staff should let McCoy air it out some and get a solid road victory.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 27 JAX 24

 

SEATTLE AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEA 75
139
14
1.7
#3
NO 112
333
30
1.6
#16

Everyone in the NFC West has been outscored TY and SEA is the best with -33 pts. QB Hasselbeck has a broken left wrist and will be in a bulky cast. He’ll face a Saints def that HC Payton said is playing even better than the 2006 version. NO has held six str foes to less than 300 yds and 15.5 ppp. Seahawks HC Carroll will face several of his former USC players (RB Bush, DT Ellis) here and he lacks the defensive capability to slow down Brees who is finally stating to get up to speed after a slow start.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 SEATTLE 10

 

TAMPA BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TB 83
228
22
2.0
#15
SF 128
263
25
1.5
#21

The home team has won 5 str in this series and the Bucs will start WR Mike Williams even after an off the field incident Friday morning. SF is starting to pick up some momentum after 2 str wins with QB Troy Smith. His mobility will be key as their young OL lost LT Staley with a broken leg for 4 weeks. SF has the edge at RB, WR, and TE but Freeman’s ability to pull 4Q comebacks makes them dangerous here. Nonetheless the 49ers get another critical win as they try to make a playoff run hee in the 2H of the season
PHIL’S FORECAST: San Fran 20 Tampa Bay17

 

 
OAKLAND AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAK 100
203
21
2.0
#14
PIT 121
235
22
1.5
#2

Oakland has lost 7 str off a bye but beat Pitt 27-24 LY as a huge dog. The Steelers have the 3rd best run defense in the NFL since 1993 allowing just 62 ypg. Oakland’s impressive win streak has been against the #25, #27 and #19 defenses and naturally the Steelers are much more stout. PIT HC Tomlin put the team on notice by releasing K Reed after the NE loss. PIT only has BUF on deck and will have their starting LG and WR Ward back here. Expect a much better Steelers effort.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 21 OAKLAND 13

BALTIMORE AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BAL 168
198
30
1.0
#25
CAR 86
210
10
2.7
#12

CAR QB Brian St. Pierre will only have 4 practices under his belt when he faces the Ravens. 6 of CAR’s 8 losses TY have been by 13 or more pts and HC Fox is putting St. Pierre to not ruin rookie Tony Pike. Meanwhile in Ravens QB Flaaco’s L/4 gms he is avg 254 ypg (67%) with a 10-1 ratio (Carolina defense has a 6-14 ratio). CAR simply lacks the weapons and many of their young players (12 rookies) are starting to hit the rookie wall and the only question here is if Carolina can score.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 37 CAROLINA 3

DETROIT AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DET 76
245
29
2.0
#1
DAL 104
285
22
2.0
#19

If it wasn’t for the Cowboys big national fan base. this battle of 2-7 teams would get little notice. DET is just 0-25 on the road (NFL record) and S/’01 are just 8-69 (10.4%). DET is very one-dimensional as RB Best has fallen off since an impressive two-game start to the year due to turf-toe. DAL finally played up to their talent LW vs a beat-up Giants offense and need a big win here as they are 0-4 at home TY. If not for Rams QB Bradford, DAL WR Bryant would merit serious consideration for offensive ROY as he has more catches over the L/5 weeks (24 rec for 395 yds and 5 TD’s) than Austin and Williams. Look for a higher scoring game and for the Cowboys to get their first home win of the year as they get ready for the Saints on Thanksgiving.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 28 DETROIT 20

BUFFALO AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUF 94
153
18
2.4
#17
CIN 145
265
24
2.0
#31

The Bills can exhale after getting their first win of the year but it came at a price as RB Spiller will miss with a hamstring. The situational edge goes to the Bengals as this is their 3rd home game in 4 weeks and they have lost B2B games vs playoff level teams with PIT and IND. The Bengals have more than enough weapons to handle the Bills at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 31 BUFFALO 17

ARIZONA AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARZ 76
173
20
2.3
#6
KC 168
288
34
1.7
#11

Todd Haley was the OC for ARZ when they lost to PIT in the Super Bowl back in 2008. ARZ still runs a Steelers style of defense, which Chiefs DC Crennel is familiar with from CLE. Crennel also has the coaching edge against ARZ QB Anderson as they were together at CLE. The Cardinals disappointing offense took another hit TW as RT Keith was placed on IR with a hamstring. The Chiefs are incensed after losing two str div gms and have a long rd trip to SEA on deck. KC will look to establish the run to keep the Cardinals dangerous WR’s off the field and the Chiefs big injury question is if TE Moeaki (concussion) will take the field as he is #2 on the team yds and rec 31 rec for 378. The Chiefs will have a huge home edge as the entire NFC West is 3-15 on the road this year with only one win outside of the div.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 24 ARIZONA 13

ATLANTA AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATL 108
228
24
0.9
#24
STL 82
233
17
3.3
#26

Both tms are in physically good shape here and while the Falcons have extra time to prep for this game, the reality is they have a playoff seeding gm vs GB on deck. STL has won 4 str at home, with a 23-12 avg score. Bradford is a lock for offensive ROY baring injury as he has 138 pass att’s without an int. Look for the Rams short passing game to make this closer than expected and they have a chance at the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 17 ATLANTA 14

INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IND 82
273
23
1.1
#30
NE 133
258
30
1.2
#9

Brady has won 24 str gms at home but Manning has won 5 of the L/6 in this series. While neither team is statistically dominant, solid coaching and good QB play have them both at 1st place in their divisions and playoff seeding is at stake here. Belichick has been putting extra time in this game after LY’s 4Q coaching decision backfired on him (Pass to Faulk on 4th dn deep in own territory). Brady has an outstanding match-up with TE’s Hernandez and Gronkowski against a beat-up Colts LB corp who could be without 2 starting LB’s. This essentially is a div gm for both teams and I’ll side with the upgraded Patriots speed in a higher scoring game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 24 IND 21